Seven trends in the Middle East are going to worsen an already complicated situation

Observers note SEVEN trends in the Middle East. These are going to worsen an already complicated situation.

First: Democracy is like a plant with no
water - it's withering in Egypt, Turkey, Iraq and doesn't even exist in Syria. Israel's democracy is perfect, but in an arid region it needs watering.

Shifting mideast sands

Second: Russian influence is likely to increase. The Russian military supports Syria. Russia has interests in Iran. Russia needs Turkish exports, especially food and Turkey needs gas flowing from Russia. Russian bankers enjoy the warm climate in Cyprus, even if the banks have put a chill on the inflow of money from Moscow.

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Third: The Shia / Sunni division is widening, not finding a path to reconciliation. The impact of Syria's three year war is causing a fissure to turn into a gulf. Talking about the Gulf, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar, the latter's  support for the Brotherhood being only the most recent of irritants.

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For example, Turkey, with a predominantly Sunni population, is not invited to Egypt for a major conference on Islam. Qatar is also excluded. Has such an event ever happened in the Islamic world before? “The Ministry of Waqfs will not resume contacts with Turkey until the Turkish government apologizes to Egypt and to his eminence Imam of Al Azhar, and changes its policy towards Cairo,” Jumaa reportedly said.

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Fourth: The United States of America is tired out, exhausted from two long wars in the Middle East. Iraq, which was supposed to be a "picnic" (Remember President Bush stating 'The War is over") followed by Afghanistan has turned into a mega-discouragement. Who has the courage to confront Syria in any meaningful way?

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Fifth: The presence of radical Muslim groups in Syria has given pause on the part of those who thought military opposition to the regime in Damascus would produce a "quick democratic solution". Three borders of Israel are threatened:  new tunnels from Gaza into Israel; missiles taken off a ship coming from Iran; and el Qaeda groups in Syria.

Sixth: Questions are being asked for the first time, such as "Are these still 'states' in the modern concept of statehood, or are Lebanon, Syria and Iraq fracturing to a such a degree that they are in danger of becoming 'failed-states'?

Will Lebanon be able to pay its bills?

Seventh: Given the massive dislocation of Syrians throughout Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, and the unbelievable destruction of Syrian infrastructure (cities, roads, buildings, bridges) will Lebanon - sooner - and Syria - later on, face possible bankruptcy?